Glenavon FC 3-2 Newry City AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.38
Over 2.5
44%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
5.0
2-3 Goals
44%
1.95
4-5 Goals
21%
2.76
6+ Goals
10%
7.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.0 — our 25% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.75
X/1
16%
3.73
X/2
8%
14.1
X/X
12%
7.05
2/1
6%
20.55
2/2
9%
10.3
2/X
9%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
66%
-17.2pp
28%
Draw
19%
+8.8pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
38%
+17.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
62%
-17.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Newry City AFC EU Bookmakers 18%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +36%
1.89/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.21
-16% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +57%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
459 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Glenavon FC
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Newry City AFC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.12.2023 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 0-4 HT 0-3 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
24.11.2023 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 0-3 HT 0-2 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
19.08.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC KİRL
15.04.2023 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 0-1 HT 0-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
04.03.2023 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
25.02.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-2 HT 0-2 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC KİRL
POST-MATCH Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Glenavon FC edged past Newry City AFC 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Glenavon FC as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Glenavon FC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Glenavon FC and 0.83 for Newry City AFC.

What was the final score of Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC?

Glenavon FC 3-2 Newry City AFC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Glenavon FC win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Glenavon FC 49%, draw 28%, Newry City AFC 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Glenavon FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Glenavon FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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