Alverca 1-0 Sporting Braga II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+7.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga II EU Bookmakers 32%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.51/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.26
+26% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-1 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
06.05.2023 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-0 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
16.04.2023 Alverca Alverca 2-1 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
1-0
AWAY Sporting Braga II
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Sporting Braga II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca edged past Sporting Braga II 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Alverca made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Alverca had 46% of the ball to Sporting Braga II's 54%, shots finished 12-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alverca and 1.67 for Sporting Braga II.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Sporting Braga II?

Alverca 1-0 Sporting Braga II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Sporting Braga II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alverca 38%, draw 26%, Sporting Braga II 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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