Melilla 1-0 Navalcarnero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.0pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melilla EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 37%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.24/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.06
+12% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melilla
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Navalcarnero
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
24.11.2024 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 2-2 HT 0-1 Melilla Melilla İS4
07.05.2023 Melilla Melilla 0-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
08.01.2023 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-1 HT 0-0 Melilla Melilla İS4
POST-MATCH Melilla vs Navalcarnero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melilla nicked a narrow win over Navalcarnero 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Melilla found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Melilla had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Melilla and 0.67 for Navalcarnero.

What was the final score of Melilla vs Navalcarnero?

Melilla 1-0 Navalcarnero in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melilla vs Navalcarnero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melilla win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Melilla 40%, draw 30%, Navalcarnero 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melilla), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melilla) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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