Union Berlin 1-0 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.2
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
10%
12.75
X/1
18%
5.19
X/2
13%
6.7
X/X
10%
4.51
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.77
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 33%
+8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.37/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.33
-12% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
23.0 Crosses 18.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 0.87
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 Passes 375
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
10.02.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
16.09.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
12.03.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
31.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AFK
18.09.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
1-0
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.19 xG 1.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
235 Passes 302
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin edged past Wolfsburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 45% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 55%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.19 to 1.86 — on chances, Wolfsburg could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Union Berlin and 0.83 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg?

Union Berlin 1-0 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 41%, draw 27%, Wolfsburg 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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