Wolfsburg 1-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.17
6+ Goals
11%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.97
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
13%
4.59
X/2
10%
7.01
X/X
8%
4.22
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
15%
5.4
2/X
10%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.0pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -12%
1.52/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.46
-8% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.2 Crosses 19.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Union Berlin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
347 Passes 318
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
16.09.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
12.03.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
31.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AFK
18.09.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
05.03.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-0
AWAY Union Berlin
0.58 xG 0.51
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
423 Passes 333
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg nicked a narrow win over Union Berlin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Wolfsburg as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 55% of the ball to Union Berlin's 45%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.58 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.17 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?

Wolfsburg 1-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 41%, draw 26%, Union Berlin 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolfsburg), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✓ Under 2.5
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