Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.33
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.31
X/2
8%
8.94
X/X
10%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.0
2/2
13%
6.49
2/X
9%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.0pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 26%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
2.20/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.62
+54% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.5 Crosses 16.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Freiburg
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.90 xG 0.82
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
534 Passes 225
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
37 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
09.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
16.09.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-4 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.02.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.08.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
14.01.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.08.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4-0
AWAY Freiburg
1.34 xG 0.82
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
572 Passes 363
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
41 Box Touches 9
17 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund swept aside Freiburg 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 59% of the ball to Freiburg's 41%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.34 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.17 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg?

Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 46%, draw 27%, Freiburg 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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