Bayer Leverkusen 5-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.27
Draw
24%
5.28
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.59
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.75
2-3 Goals
42%
2.06
4-5 Goals
25%
2.65
6+ Goals
11%
6.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
25.5
X/1
21%
3.54
X/2
5%
24.7
X/X
10%
9.2
2/1
5%
23.0
2/2
9%
18.5
2/X
6%
25.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
74%
-17.3pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.5pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
2.26/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.10
-7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +20%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
507 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 75%
38.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.6 Crosses 16.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.33 xG 1.08
70% Ball Possession 30%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
638 Passes 215
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
40 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
24.09.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
05.02.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
5-2
AWAY Heidenheim
2.23 xG 1.06
78% Ball Possession 22%
20 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
866 Passes 181
91% Pass Accuracy 72%
42 Box Touches 6
23 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen cruised past Heidenheim 5-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 78% of the ball to Heidenheim's 22%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.23 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.33 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Heidenheim?

Bayer Leverkusen 5-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 57%, draw 24%, Heidenheim 19%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5
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