Hoffenheim 4-3 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.29
Over 2.5
63%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.83
6+ Goals
16%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.62
1/2
8%
23.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
9%
7.36
X/2
12%
5.19
X/X
14%
5.39
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
19%
2.82
2/X
6%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
40%
-2.9pp
63%
Over 2.5
60%
+2.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-2.6pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
1.80/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.13
+59% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
17.4 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
0W-1D-5L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.72 xG 1.64
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
353 Passes 483
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.05.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
16.12.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
29.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
01.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
05.11.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
10.04.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 3-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
4-3
AWAY RB Leipzig
2.01 xG 1.60
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
424 Passes 259
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim edged past RB Leipzig 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Hoffenheim made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 60% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 40%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.01 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.33 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig?

Hoffenheim 4-3 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 34%, draw 27%, RB Leipzig 39%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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