Borussia Dortmund II 3-3 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 6 Apr 2025

Borussia Dortmund II
3-3 HT 2-1
Ingolstadt
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
47%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
9.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.31
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.2
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
13%
6.71
X/2
16%
5.54
X/X
9%
5.16
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
21%
3.19
2/X
6%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.2 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
47%
Away Win
40%
+6.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund II v Ingolstadt — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.40/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.22
+0% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
257 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
18.8 Crosses 16.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 374
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.10.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 5-3 HT 2-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
13.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
04.11.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
04.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
07.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-4 HT 0-2 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3

Borussia Dortmund II 3-3 Ingolstadt — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
3-3
AWAY Ingolstadt
46% Ball Possession 54%
24 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 2
241 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II and Ingolstadt shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ingolstadt at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 46% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 54%, shots finished 24-16.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 2.40 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt?

Borussia Dortmund II 3-3 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 30%, draw 23%, Ingolstadt 47%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ingolstadt) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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