Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Apr 2025

Newcastle Jets
1-2 HT 0-2
Wellington Phoenix
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.01
2-3 Goals
46%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
9%
6.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.19
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.65
X/1
23%
4.61
X/2
8%
9.46
X/X
7%
6.34
2/1
8%
19.85
2/2
7%
6.56
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.85
Value flag · 2/X at 14.85 — our 10% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-1.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.0pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 26%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
2.31/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.83
-16% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
37.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
29.8 Crosses 14.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
409 Passes 469
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.12.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
19.04.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
27.01.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.12.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-3 HT 0-2 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
04.03.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
22.10.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 3-1 HT 3-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
1-2
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.98 xG 1.88
67% Ball Possession 33%
25 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 2
557 Passes 240
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
50 Box Touches 25
34 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix nicked a narrow win over Newcastle Jets 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle Jets at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 67% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 33%, shots finished 25-15, expected goals 1.98 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.33 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?

Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 52%, draw 27%, Wellington Phoenix 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle Jets) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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