Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 1-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-10.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 21%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.99/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.84
-42% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Smorgon
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.11.2024 Smorgon Smorgon 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
16.06.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
22.06.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-1 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLRK
18.07.2020 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1-1
AWAY Smorgon
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk and Smorgon couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had 57% of the ball to Smorgon's 43%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk and 0.75 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Smorgon?

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 1-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 47%, draw 27%, Smorgon 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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