Alianza Lima 1-1 Universitario — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.3pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.5pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Universitario EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
0.94/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.08
-51% / +108% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +39%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.9 Crosses 16.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Universitario
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.60 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
254 Passes 282
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.07.2024 Universitario Universitario 2-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
11.02.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-1 HT 0-1 Universitario Universitario PER
09.11.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-2 HT 0-1 Universitario Universitario PER
05.11.2023 Universitario Universitario 1-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
23.07.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-0 HT 0-0 Universitario Universitario PER
19.02.2023 Universitario Universitario 1-2 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-1
AWAY Universitario
0.55 xG 0.46
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
120 Passes 330
65% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Universitario
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima and Universitario shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Lima at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 33% of the ball to Universitario's 67%, shots finished 5-7, expected goals 0.55 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitario led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.17 for Universitario.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Universitario?

Alianza Lima 1-1 Universitario in the Peru - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Universitario?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 43%, draw 30%, Universitario 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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