UTC Cajamarca 4-1 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+2.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 43%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +11%
1.28/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.18
+11% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.3 Crosses 18.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.95 xG 1.84
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
168 Passes 356
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 4-0 HT 1-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
31.03.2024 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
26.09.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-1 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
07.05.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
26.07.2022 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
25.02.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-2 HT 2-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
4-1
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.86 xG 1.51
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
184 Passes 278
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 19
6 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UTC Cajamarca swept aside Sporting Cristal 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Cristal at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 42% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 58%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.86 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 2.17 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

UTC Cajamarca 4-1 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 32%, draw 28%, Sporting Cristal 41%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Cristal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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