Pogon Szczecin 4-0 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
2.95
6+ Goals
13%
9.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.94
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.5
X/1
21%
4.14
X/2
8%
11.35
X/X
13%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.25
2/2
11%
8.93
2/X
5%
17.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 12% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+7.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
2.04/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.95
+21% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +83% / -17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
433 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
24.2 Crosses 12.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Katowice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.37 xG 1.61
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
365 Passes 238
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
26.09.2018 Katowice Katowice 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
4-0
AWAY Katowice
2.93 xG 0.74
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 288
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin ran out comfortable winners over Katowice 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 51% of the ball to Katowice's 49%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.93 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Katowice led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 2.00 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice?

Pogon Szczecin 4-0 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 52%, draw 23%, Katowice 25%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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