Portimonense 2-3 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 30% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 31%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.39/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.70
-19% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.1 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.61 xG 0.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
149 Passes 329
64% Pass Accuracy 79%
6 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
17.10.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 3-3 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POK
13.12.2015 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
06.05.2015 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-4 HT 2-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
21.12.2014 Portimonense Portimonense 2-1 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
11.05.2014 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
2-3
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.05 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
218 Passes 234
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense squeezed past Portimonense 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Portimonense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portimonense had 47% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 53%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.05 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Portimonense and 1.33 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs UD Oliveirense?

Portimonense 2-3 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 41%, draw 27%, UD Oliveirense 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Portimonense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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