Porto II 1-0 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.05
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 27% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +12%
1.43/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.38
+10% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 17.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.40 xG 1.31
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
352 Passes 234
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.05.2024 Porto II Porto II 1-3 HT 0-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
07.01.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 3-0 HT 2-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
1-0
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.73 xG 0.40
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 173
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II squeezed past Paços De Ferreira 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Porto II made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Porto II had 59% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 41%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.73 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Porto II's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Porto II and 2.67 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Paços De Ferreira?

Porto II 1-0 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Porto II 37%, draw 28%, Paços De Ferreira 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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