Porto II 1-3 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
13%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.8pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.8pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.69/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.28
+10% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.6 Crosses 20.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.50 xG 1.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
375 Passes 219
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.01.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 3-0 HT 2-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
1-3
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.15 xG 1.87
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
14 Corners 3
368 Passes 209
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira saw off Porto II 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Paços De Ferreira found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Porto II had 63% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 37%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.15 to 1.87.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Paços De Ferreira?

Porto II 1-3 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Porto II 40%, draw 31%, Paços De Ferreira 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Porto II) ✗ Under 2.5
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