Maritimo 2-1 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
19%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.0pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+10.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 18%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.27/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.46
-18% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
338 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
0W-1D-0L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 1.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 3
312 Passes 285
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-1 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
2-1
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.84 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
14 Corners 9
287 Passes 273
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo squeezed past UD Oliveirense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Maritimo had 52% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 48%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.84 to 1.47.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs UD Oliveirense?

Maritimo 2-1 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 52%, draw 22%, UD Oliveirense 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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