Tondela vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Nacional
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
POK
0-1
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR2
2-1
HT 1-1
Nacional
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
Tondela 2-3 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional squeezed past Tondela 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Tondela had 48% of the ball to Nacional's 52%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 1.70 to 1.84.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tondela and 0.83 for Nacional.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Nacional?
Tondela 2-3 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tondela 25%, draw 25%, Nacional 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.