Nacional 0-1 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

Nacional
0-1 HT 0-0
Estrela
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nacional vs Estrela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.97
6+ Goals
10%
18.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.91
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
11%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.79
X/2
9%
7.34
X/X
11%
4.29
2/1
11%
27.5
2/2
11%
5.67
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Estrela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.75/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.96
+16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +44%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
19.6 Crosses 18.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Nacional vs Estrela Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Estrela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.70 xG 1.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
283 Passes 295
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Estrela Estrela 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
21.05.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
15.01.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Estrela Estrela POR2
16.04.2022 Estrela Estrela 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
04.12.2021 Nacional Nacional 4-1 HT 2-0 Estrela Estrela POR2

Nacional 0-1 Estrela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
0-1
AWAY Estrela
0.53 xG 0.96
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
289 Passes 158
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela squeezed past Nacional 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Nacional had 61% of the ball to Estrela's 39%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 0.53 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional and 0.80 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Estrela?

Nacional 0-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nacional 42%, draw 29%, Estrela 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5
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