Porto 1-4 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

Porto
1-4 HT 0-2
Benfica
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Porto vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.65
6+ Goals
13%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 28% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.95
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
16%
6.77
X/2
9%
4.99
X/X
11%
4.59
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
3.09
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 48%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +17%
1.40/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.29
+0% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +40%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
35.0 Crosses 16.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Porto vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Benfica
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.23
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
293 Passes 372
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Benfica Benfica 4-1 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
03.03.2024 Porto Porto 5-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
29.09.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
09.08.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto Portekiz - SUper Kupa
07.04.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
21.10.2022 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR

Porto 1-4 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
1-4
AWAY Benfica
1.17 xG 2.60
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
413 Passes 229
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Porto vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Porto 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Benfica made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Porto had 61% of the ball to Benfica's 39%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.17 to 2.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Porto and 1.50 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Porto vs Benfica?

Porto 1-4 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Porto 35%, draw 25%, Benfica 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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