Benfica vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Benfica v Porto — Team-Based Signals
Benfica vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Porto
POR
2-0
HT 0-0
Porto
Portekiz - SUper Kupa
1-2
HT 1-1
Porto
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Benfica
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Porto
POR
Benfica 4-1 Porto — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica cruised past Porto 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Benfica had 48% of the ball to Porto's 52%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.21 to 1.08.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Benfica and 1.33 for Porto.
What was the final score of Benfica vs Porto?
Benfica 4-1 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Benfica vs Porto?
Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Benfica 44%, draw 25%, Porto 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.