Benfica 4-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
12%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 28% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2
6%
7.96
X/X
12%
4.77
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
19%
5.9
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.55/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.67
+3% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.5 Crosses 13.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Porto
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.91 xG 1.09
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 4
03.03.2024 Porto Porto 5-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
29.09.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
09.08.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto Portekiz - SUper Kupa
07.04.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
21.10.2022 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
07.05.2022 Benfica Benfica 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4-1
AWAY Porto
2.21 xG 1.08
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
318 Passes 344
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica cruised past Porto 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Benfica had 48% of the ball to Porto's 52%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.21 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Benfica and 1.33 for Porto.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Porto?

Benfica 4-1 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Benfica 44%, draw 25%, Porto 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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