Estrela 2-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 10 Nov 2024

Estrela
2-0 HT 0-0
Nacional
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Estrela vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.67
Over 2.5
53%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.41
6+ Goals
12%
22.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.41 — our 25% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.1
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1
14%
4.5
X/2
10%
6.35
X/X
14%
4.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
29.0
2/2
11%
5.0
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estrela v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.21/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.08
+30% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
24.9 Crosses 20.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7

Estrela vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.52 xG 0.89
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
307 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
21.05.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
15.01.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Estrela Estrela POR2
16.04.2022 Estrela Estrela 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
04.12.2021 Nacional Nacional 4-1 HT 2-0 Estrela Estrela POR2

Estrela 2-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
2-0
AWAY Nacional
2.06 xG 0.34
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
271 Passes 283
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela saw off Nacional 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Estrela as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Estrela had 51% of the ball to Nacional's 49%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 2.06 to 0.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estrela and 1.25 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Nacional?

Estrela 2-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Estrela 47%, draw 25%, Nacional 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estrela) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
10 Nov 2024
19:30 Santa Clara vs Vitoria Guimaraes Analysis →
21:45 Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP Analysis →
23:45 Benfica vs Porto Analysis →