Napoli 1-0 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Apr 2026

Napoli
1-0 HT 0-0
Milan
📅06/04/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Napoli vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
34%
2.88
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.6
Over
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
59%
1.88
No
41%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.48
2-3
42%
1.73
4-5
21%
4.42
6+
9%
23.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.39
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.16
X/2
9%
6.48
X/X
19%
3.7
2/1 ✗
12%
31.0
2/2
12%
4.87
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 12% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Napoli v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 32%
+10% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.54/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.59
+42% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
295 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 81%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
17.0 Crosses 12.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Napoli vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Milan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.51 xG 1.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
417 Passes 403
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.12.2025 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTSK
28.09.2025 Milan Milan 2-1 HT 2-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
30.03.2025 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
29.10.2024 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
11.02.2024 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
29.10.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA

Napoli 1-0 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1-0
AWAY Milan
0.80 xG 0.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
469 Passes 396
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Napoli vs Milan
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Napoli shaded a tight game against Milan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

The model refused to pick a side here (36% / 34% / 30%); Napoli picked one for it. The one blemish: both teams to score (59%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Napoli had 53% of the ball to Milan's 47%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.80 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Milan.

Napoli vs Milan Result & Final Score

Napoli 1-0 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Napoli vs Milan Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Napoli 36%, draw 34%, Milan 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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