Milan 0-2 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Oct 2024

Milan
0-2 HT 0-2
Napoli
📅29/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 24% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.9
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
18%
5.75
X/2
11%
5.51
X/X
11%
4.3
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
14%
3.69
2/X
7%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.79/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.18
+19% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 82%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
17.0 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Napoli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.82 xG 1.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
310 Passes 440
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
29.10.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
18.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan ŞMP
12.04.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli ŞMP
02.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-4 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
18.09.2022 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
0-2
AWAY Napoli
0.69 xG 1.13
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
501 Passes 308
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli saw off Milan 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Napoli made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Milan had 61% of the ball to Napoli's 39%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.69 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Milan and 0.83 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Milan vs Napoli?

Milan 0-2 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Milan 40%, draw 28%, Napoli 32%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✗ BTTS Yes
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