Lecce 1-0 Hellas Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.7
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.33
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.12
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.9
X/1
12%
4.75
X/2
13%
6.72
X/X
11%
3.91
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
12%
5.14
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 1/X at 12.9 — our 11% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.26/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.24
-34% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.2 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Hellas Verona
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.86 xG 1.27
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 Passes 290
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Lecce Lecce 0-1 HT 0-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
27.11.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
07.05.2023 Lecce Lecce 0-1 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
21.01.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
26.01.2020 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 3-0 HT 2-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
01.09.2019 Lecce Lecce 0-1 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-0
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.68 xG 0.29
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
383 Passes 253
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 3
21 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Hellas Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce squeezed past Hellas Verona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Lecce made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Lecce had 58% of the ball to Hellas Verona's 42%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.68 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lecce's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hellas Verona led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Lecce and 1.67 for Hellas Verona.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Hellas Verona?

Lecce 1-0 Hellas Verona in the Italy - Serie A on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Hellas Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lecce 39%, draw 28%, Hellas Verona 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecce), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
29 Oct 2024
20:30 Cagliari vs Bologna Analysis →
22:45 Milan vs Napoli Analysis →