Longford Town 2-1 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 34%
-15% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.26/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-15% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Kerry
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2024 Kerry 3-0 HT 2-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
08.09.2023 Kerry 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
15.07.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
01.04.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Longford Town
2-1
AWAY Kerry
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Longford Town edged past Kerry 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Longford Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Longford Town had 42% of the ball to Kerry's 58%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Longford Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Longford Town and 1.00 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Kerry?

Longford Town 2-1 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kerry win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 34%, draw 28%, Kerry 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kerry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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