Omiya Ardija 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.2pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 29%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.25/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/0.84
-13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +61%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
29.08.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 4-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
19.06.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
21.10.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
25.07.2020 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
0-2
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga saw off Omiya Ardija 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Omiya Ardija at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 50% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 50%, shots finished 13-16.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Omiya Ardija had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Omiya Ardija and 0.25 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Omiya Ardija 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 48%, draw 24%, Matsumoto Yamaga 28%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP3 More Japan - J3 League
6 May 2024
07:00 Imabari vs Kataller Toyama Analysis →
07:00 Osaka vs Ryukyu Analysis →
07:00 Vanraure Hachinohe vs Grulla Morioka Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama SCC vs Sagamihara Analysis →
08:00 Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Parceiro Nagano Analysis →
08:00 Kamatamare Sanuki vs Azul Claro Numazu Analysis →