Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 CA La Paz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒03:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.7pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +20%
2.18/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/2.08
+23% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
1W-2D-2L
AWAY CA La Paz
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
03.05.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.03.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-4 HT 0-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
23.08.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-0 HT 2-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
24.02.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 0-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
14.07.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-2 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs CA La Paz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg saw off CA La Paz 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, CA La Paz led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 2.40 for CA La Paz.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs CA La Paz?

Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 CA La Paz in the Mexico - Primera A on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs CA La Paz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 51%, draw 22%, CA La Paz 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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