Aucas 2-0 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 6 May 2025

📅06/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.82
No
58%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.8pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.1pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.89/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.51
+11% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 74%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
20.3 Crosses 13.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Libertad
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.36 xG 1.38
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
323 Passes 193
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
05.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKVK
05.05.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.08.2023 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
01.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
2-0
AWAY Libertad
2.32 xG 0.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
297 Passes 302
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas beat Libertad 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aucas as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aucas had 50% of the ball to Libertad's 50%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.32 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Aucas and 1.20 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Libertad?

Aucas 2-0 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 06/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aucas 55%, draw 24%, Libertad 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aucas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →