Libertad 1-1 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.6pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 42%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +24%
0.83/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.31
-58% / +97% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 74%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.8 Crosses 15.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Aucas
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.38 xG 1.36
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
193 Passes 323
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKVK
05.05.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.08.2023 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
01.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-1
AWAY Aucas
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Aucas couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Libertad had 53% of the ball to Aucas's 47%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Libertad and 1.25 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Aucas?

Libertad 1-1 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Libertad 34%, draw 29%, Aucas 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aucas), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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