Super Nova 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
26%
+8.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 29%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -16%
1.64/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.69
-44% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
28.5 Crosses 19.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Super Nova
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.65 xG 1.32
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
252 Passes 271
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.05.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
31.03.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-2 HT 2-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
17.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
30.06.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-5 HT 1-3 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
27.05.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-2 HT 2-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
19.03.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Super Nova
1-0
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.01 xG 1.20
32% Ball Possession 68%
2 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
154 Passes 414
62% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Box Touches 33
5 Crosses 41
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Super Nova nicked a narrow win over FK Tukums 2000 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Super Nova as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Super Nova had 32% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 68%, shots finished 2-20, expected goals 1.01 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Super Nova and 2.00 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000?

Super Nova 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 41%, draw 25%, FK Tukums 2000 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Super Nova) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Super Nova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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