Riga FC 1-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.13
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
82%
-14.3pp
19%
Draw
11%
+7.3pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Riga FC EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
2.76/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.69
+10% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +4%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
451 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 75%
44.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
31.0 Crosses 12.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Riga FC
5W-0D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.41 xG 0.84
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
440 Passes 165
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
41 Box Touches 15
33 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
29.03.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-2 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-5 Riga FC Riga FC LET
28.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
12.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Riga FC
1-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.98 xG 1.12
75% Ball Possession 25%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 2
499 Passes 132
87% Pass Accuracy 67%
50 Box Touches 17
34 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC and BFC Daugavpils couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Riga FC carried 68% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Riga FC had 75% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 25%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.98 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Riga FC and 0.33 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Riga FC 1-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Riga FC 68%, draw 19%, BFC Daugavpils 14%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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