Riga FC 1-2 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
18%
6.26
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
81%
-11.6pp
18%
Draw
13%
+5.1pp
13%
Away Win
6%
+6.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Riga FC EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.71/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.34
+18% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
44.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
30.0 Crosses 11.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Riga FC
6W-0D-0L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.85 xG 0.34
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
405 Passes 168
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
35 Box Touches 14
30 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-5 Riga FC Riga FC LET
28.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
12.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
30.07.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Riga FC
1-2
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
5.36 xG 1.48
79% Ball Possession 21%
39 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
574 Passes 95
89% Pass Accuracy 54%
80 Box Touches 10
47 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils edged past Riga FC 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Riga FC at 69% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Riga FC had 79% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 21%, shots finished 39-5, expected goals 5.36 to 1.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Riga FC.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Riga FC and 0.00 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Riga FC 1-2 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Riga FC 69%, draw 18%, BFC Daugavpils 13%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Riga FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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