Riga FC 1-0 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
17%
7.13
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.98
Over 2.5
57%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
5%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-12.6pp
17%
Draw
11%
+5.9pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+6.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.6pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Riga FC EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
2.70/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.25
+11% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +8%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
485 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 72%
46.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
29.4 Crosses 11.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Riga FC
5W-1D-0L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
2.79 xG 0.67
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
412 Passes 129
82% Pass Accuracy 56%
49 Box Touches 14
36 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
24.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
12.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
30.07.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
08.05.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
15.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 1-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Riga FC
1-0
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.63 xG 0.21
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 3
419 Passes 199
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 7
36 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Riga FC had 66% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 34%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.63 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Riga FC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Riga FC and 0.17 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Riga FC 1-0 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Riga FC 69%, draw 17%, BFC Daugavpils 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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