BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
9.57
Draw
22%
5.28
Away
60%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
22%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
8%
+9.7pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.6pp
61%
Away Win
76%
-15.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.6pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 80%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
0.91/2.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.94/0.73
-12% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +44%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 83%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 43.9
12.1 Crosses 28.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.62 xG 2.73
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 9
150 Passes 447
61% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 46
10 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 1-2 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-5 Riga FC Riga FC LET
28.07.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
12.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0-1
AWAY Riga FC
1.09 xG 0.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
183 Passes 341
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 24
27 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 39% of the ball to Riga FC's 61%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.09 to 0.53 — on chances, BFC Daugavpils could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 2.17 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 18%, draw 22%, Riga FC 61%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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