Indy Eleven 3-0 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 27% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 23%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.69/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.54
-6% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.6 Crosses 18.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.06 xG 1.56
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
313 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
23.04.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-3 HT 2-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
18.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 5-0 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
3-0
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.59 xG 0.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
212 Passes 377
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven ran out comfortable winners over Monterey Bay 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 40% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 60%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.59 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Indy Eleven and 2.67 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?

Indy Eleven 3-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 48%, draw 27%, Monterey Bay 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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