Monterey Bay 0-1 Indy Eleven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.84
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
13%
10.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +24%
1.53/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.28
+8% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.6 Crosses 17.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Indy Eleven
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 1.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
281 Passes 356
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.04.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-3 HT 2-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
18.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 5-0 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
0-1
AWAY Indy Eleven
1.02 xG 1.15
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
375 Passes 227
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Indy Eleven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven squeezed past Monterey Bay 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Monterey Bay at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 59% of the ball to Indy Eleven's 41%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 1.02 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.00 for Indy Eleven.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Indy Eleven?

Monterey Bay 0-1 Indy Eleven in the USL Championship on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Indy Eleven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 42%, draw 27%, Indy Eleven 31%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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