Cardiff MU 1-4 Colwyn Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 6 Sep 2025

📅06/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
45%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.35
6+ Goals
8%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.40/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.17
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +38%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Colwyn Bay
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 3-2 HT 1-1 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GALWK
30.09.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-2 HT 1-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
26.08.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
16.10.2021 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALWK
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Colwyn Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colwyn Bay cruised past Cardiff MU 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cardiff MU at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.25 for Colwyn Bay.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Colwyn Bay?

Cardiff MU 1-4 Colwyn Bay in the Wales - Premier League on 06/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Colwyn Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff MU win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 44%, draw 28%, Colwyn Bay 28%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff MU) ✗ Under 2.5
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