Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Deportivo Recoleta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 6 Sep 2025

📅06/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.33/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.87
-2% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +43%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
385 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.04.2025 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
09.02.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion squeezed past Deportivo Recoleta 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional Asuncion as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 62% of the ball to Deportivo Recoleta's 38%, shots finished 16-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Deportivo Recoleta led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 1.00 for Deportivo Recoleta.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Deportivo Recoleta in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 06/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Asuncion win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 46%, draw 28%, Deportivo Recoleta 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional Asuncion), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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