Malmö FF 1-1 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.87
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.73
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.8
X/1
18%
3.52
X/2
7%
14.1
X/X
12%
6.29
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
7%
11.4
2/X
8%
19.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-9.9pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.0pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +24%
1.79/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.45
+9% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +40%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 76%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.1 Crosses 14.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malmö FF
4W-2D-0L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.52 xG 0.84
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
482 Passes 300
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.04.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-4 HT 0-2 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
31.07.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 3-1 HT 1-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
10.06.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-3 HT 1-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
09.10.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
21.04.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
05.03.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 2-0 HT 2-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
1-1
AWAY IFK Varnamo
0.78 xG 1.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
600 Passes 307
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF and IFK Varnamo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Malmö FF at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Malmö FF had 63% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 37%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.78 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Malmö FF and 0.33 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs IFK Varnamo?

Malmö FF 1-1 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 56%, draw 25%, IFK Varnamo 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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