Atletico Madrid II 1-1 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.1
6+ Goals
7%
19.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 36% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.0pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.55/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.10
+14% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid II
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Ceuta
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2024 Ceuta Ceuta 4-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid II Atletico Madrid II İS3
10.09.2023 Atletico Madrid II Atletico Madrid II 1-3 HT 0-2 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid II
1-1
AWAY Ceuta
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid II vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid II and Ceuta shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid II at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Madrid II had 49% of the ball to Ceuta's 51%, shots finished 7-19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ceuta led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Atletico Madrid II and 3.50 for Ceuta.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid II vs Ceuta?

Atletico Madrid II 1-1 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid II vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid II 41%, draw 29%, Ceuta 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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