Navalcarnero 1-1 Illescas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.48
Over
42%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.27
No
54%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
39%
4-5
22%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
64%
-6.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
36%
+6.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.7pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Illescas EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.59/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.05
+13% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 200 · 62%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Illescas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Illescas 2-0 HT 1-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
08.10.2023 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 2-2 HT 1-1 Illescas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
1-1
AWAY Illescas
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Illescas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero and Illescas shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Navalcarnero at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 59% of the ball to Illescas's 41%, shots finished 17-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Illescas led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Navalcarnero and 2.00 for Illescas.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Illescas?

Navalcarnero 1-1 Illescas in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Illescas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 41%, draw 29%, Illescas 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Navalcarnero), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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