Illescas 2-0 Navalcarnero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.45
Over
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.19
No
65%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2-3
38%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
21%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.7pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.6pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.2pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.7pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illescas EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 31%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.96/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.92
+56% / +136% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illescas
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Navalcarnero
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
08.10.2023 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 2-2 HT 1-1 Illescas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Illescas
2-0
AWAY Navalcarnero
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Illescas vs Navalcarnero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Illescas beat Navalcarnero 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 32% / 31%) promised a tight game; Illescas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Illescas had 44% of the ball to Navalcarnero's 56%, shots finished 12-10.

What was the final score of Illescas vs Navalcarnero?

Illescas 2-0 Navalcarnero in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illescas vs Navalcarnero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Illescas win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Illescas 37%, draw 32%, Navalcarnero 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Illescas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Illescas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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