Pena Deportiva 1-3 Lleida Esportiu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.2pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.5pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pena Deportiva EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lleida Esportiu EU Bookmakers 48%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.00/2.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.12
+5% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pena Deportiva
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lleida Esportiu
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
08.10.2023 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu 3-2 HT 1-1 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva İS4
12.02.2023 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva 0-0 HT 0-0 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İS4
25.09.2022 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu 0-0 HT 0-0 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva İS4
17.04.2022 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu 1-1 HT 1-0 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva İS4
28.11.2021 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva 2-1 HT 0-1 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İS4
13.10.2021 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva 0-1 HT 0-1 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İSPFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pena Deportiva
1-3
AWAY Lleida Esportiu
65% Ball Possession 35%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pena Deportiva vs Lleida Esportiu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lleida Esportiu saw off Pena Deportiva 3-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lleida Esportiu as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pena Deportiva had 65% of the ball to Lleida Esportiu's 35%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lleida Esportiu led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Pena Deportiva and 1.00 for Lleida Esportiu.

What was the final score of Pena Deportiva vs Lleida Esportiu?

Pena Deportiva 1-3 Lleida Esportiu in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pena Deportiva vs Lleida Esportiu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lleida Esportiu win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pena Deportiva 30%, draw 28%, Lleida Esportiu 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lleida Esportiu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lleida Esportiu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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