El Nacional 3-0 Barcelona SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
13%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.1pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 39%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +13%
1.54/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.01
+17% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
247 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
18.9 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Barcelona SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 1.37
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
148 Passes 296
64% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
06.11.2023 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 3-2 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
29.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 4-1 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
03.07.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKVK
16.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
04.10.2020 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
3-0
AWAY Barcelona SC
0.96 xG 1.19
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 6
182 Passes 294
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Barcelona SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional ran out comfortable winners over Barcelona SC 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; El Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Nacional had 39% of the ball to Barcelona SC's 61%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.96 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Nacional and 1.17 for Barcelona SC.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Barcelona SC?

El Nacional 3-0 Barcelona SC in the Ecuador - Premier on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Barcelona SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 35%, draw 32%, Barcelona SC 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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