Fortuna Sittard 1-0 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
50%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.98
1/2
5%
24.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
10%
9.18
X/2
19%
4.19
X/X
11%
4.8
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.3
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+3.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
50%
Away Win
52%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.6pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +21%
1.14/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.11
-4% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +28%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 82%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
16.5 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-0D-6L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.10 xG 1.70
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
319 Passes 503
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
01.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.04.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
22.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-1 HT 2-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.01.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
02.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
2.05 xG 0.82
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
285 Passes 402
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard nicked a narrow win over AZ Alkmaar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 43% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 57%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 2.05 to 0.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortuna Sittard's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 26%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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