Heerenveen 1-1 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 Oct 2024

Heerenveen
1-1 HT 1-1
PEC Zwolle
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.82
6+ Goals
14%
7.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.37
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
18%
4.52
X/2
5%
8.42
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.2
2/2
19%
5.62
2/X
9%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.69/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.57
-13% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.9 Crosses 16.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
349 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
13.01.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-2 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.01.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
02.10.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
31.07.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HAZ
24.04.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

Heerenveen 1-1 PEC Zwolle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
1-1
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.78 xG 0.38
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
380 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Heerenveen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Heerenveen had 53% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 47%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.78 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heerenveen and 0.83 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?

Heerenveen 1-1 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 46%, draw 25%, PEC Zwolle 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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