Farense 1-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.75
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.24
6+ Goals
10%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.92
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.15
X/1
13%
4.38
X/2
12%
6.76
X/X
11%
4.27
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
13%
5.33
2/X
5%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.0pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -22%
1.82/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.63
+14% / +120% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
23.0 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Estoril
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.82 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
290 Passes 379
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.05.2024 Farense Farense 3-2 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
30.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 4-0 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR
01.02.2020 Farense Farense 0-2 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR2
18.08.2019 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR2
29.07.2018 Farense Farense 0-2 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril PORLC
15.10.2017 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-0
AWAY Estoril
1.59 xG 1.14
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
321 Passes 437
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farense vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense edged past Estoril 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Farense as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Farense had 44% of the ball to Estoril's 56%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.59 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Farense and 1.83 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Farense vs Estoril?

Farense 1-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Farense 43%, draw 25%, Estoril 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farense) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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