Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.33
No
59%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 32% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
20.35
X/1
16%
3.36
X/2
10%
16.65
X/X
8%
5.21
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
6%
15.35
2/X
8%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.7pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
39%
+2.6pp
59%
BTTS No
61%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.58/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/2.22
-11% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.1
23.3 Crosses 12.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Boavista
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.14 xG 1.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 Passes 263
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
27.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista POR
16.12.2023 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
07.04.2023 Boavista Boavista 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
12.12.2022 Boavista Boavista 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes PORLC
23.10.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
06.05.2022 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-2
AWAY Boavista
2.23 xG 2.36
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
414 Passes 231
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes and Boavista shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Vitoria Guimaraes carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 60% of the ball to Boavista's 40%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.23 to 2.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.00 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Boavista?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 55%, draw 24%, Boavista 21%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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